Harper gun registry solution just a "shell game"

[Jason Kauppinen]

If the CPC lost a vote to scrap the gun registry, is there anything preventing them from budgeting only $1.00 for its continued operation?

A budget vote, or a mini-budget vote I would guess.

[Connie Fournier]

How possible does a thing have to be in order for it to be worth attempting?

Getting the 30+ at this time is so improbable as to be basically impossible.

That many opposition members are simply not all going to all have life changing experiences, or personal revelations to the point where they're all going to do a 180 on gun control.

Then, why is the CPC going ahead with a vote on SSM? Do you think it is their goal to lose that vote?

[bulldog905]

My *personal opinion* is that a CPC majority government will not kill the Gun Registry or Kyoto.

The excuse then, of course, would be doing so would cause them to lose said majority in the next election.

[Mark Fournier]

If the CPC lost a vote to scrap the gun registry, is there anything preventing them from budgeting only $1.00 for its continued operation?

A budget vote, or a mini-budget vote I would guess.

I think this aspect was discussed previously and it was determined they couldn't just cut the budget to almost nothing, but I can't remember why that was.

[Jason Kauppinen]

How possible does a thing have to be in order for it to be worth attempting?

Getting the 30+ at this time is so improbable as to be basically impossible.

That many opposition members are simply not all going to all have life changing experiences, or personal revelations to the point where they're all going to do a 180 on gun control.

Then, why is the CPC going ahead with a vote on SSM? Do you think it is their goal to lose that vote?

I don't know what the motivations of the people in charge are.

What I do know is that it is better to wait for a vote that you know that you will win rather than expend time and energy on a vote that you know that you will lose.

[Mark Fournier]

Not all opinions are equal.

I'm sure you're didn't give much value to Hedy Fry's "crosses are burning" statement, right?

Hedy Fry's cross burnings were an obvious absurdity, what we are talking about here is an issue existing in a fluid situation. If there is only a roughly even chance that a decision could fall either way, opposing opinions have a closer validity. There had to have been more than one CPC caucus member who thought the registry could be scrapped or this issue wouldn't even be on the table.

[Connie Fournier]

I don't know what the motivations of the people in charge are.

What I do know is that it is better to wait for a vote that you know that you will win rather than expend time and energy on a vote that you know that you will lose.

Your whole argument is based on the assumption that the reason the CPC is not attempting to repeal Bill C-68 is because they feel they would lose the vote.

Since they have never told us that is the reason, and they have shown us that they are prepared to hold a vote on an even more divisive issue, I have to question the basis for your entire argument.

[Akimoya]

Of course, Haper has promised that there would be a "free vote" on SSM, and no true "free vote" can be a vote of confidence, and since it isn't a vote of confidence, it can't bring down Parliament. Therefore, it doesn't matter if he wins or loses - either way, he's kept his "promise".

[Jason Kauppinen]

Hedy Fry's cross burnings were an obvious absurdity, what we are talking about here is an issue existing in a fluid situation. If there is only a roughly even chance that a decision could fall either way, opposing opinions have a closer validity. There had to have been more than one CPC caucus member who thought the registry could be scrapped or this issue wouldn't even be on the table.

Those 30+ votes that are needed aren't there, and they won't be there until after the next election. This fluidity isn't there unless you're looking at a time frame of 7-8 months if the rumors about a spring election are correct. The issue here is gun control and these Liberals and Blocquistes and NDP are ideologues on that issue--they're not going to compromise on it, with the exception of a handful of MPs.

Now Connie you've raised a good point there.

[Ben Kenobi]

I don't see why we can't put this to a vote now, as a confidence motion, and if it fails trigger an election.

Where's the downside?

[Akimoya]

Ok.

So people think that the CPC has the votes right now to get a majority vote on scrapping the gun registry.

Based on what had been posted at the time you submitted this, I am hard pressed to find where anyone in this thread said any such thing - besides you.

Ok, back up what you say.

Show me, right here on this thread, which opposition MPs would join in with the CPC,

in numbers that would make a majority,

in voting to scrap the registry.

I won't hold my breath waiting.

Vic Toews, the Minister of Justice seems to think they're there:

PUBLICATION: National Post
DATE: 2006.06.19
EDITION: All but Toronto
SECTION: News
PAGE: A4
COLUMN: National Report
BYLINE: James Gordon
SOURCE: CanWest News Service
DATELINE: OTTAWA
ILLUSTRATION: Black & White Photo: Vic Toews
WORD COUNT: 327

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Justice minister confident bill to kill gun registry will pass

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Federal Justice Minister Vic Toews says he believes a bill to scrap the
controversial long-gun registry will pass despite questionable
opposition support. The Conservatives are set to table legislation as
early as today that would kill the program and fulfill a major campaign
promise. A vote is not possible until the fall, however, because
Parliament is set to break for the summer at the end of the week. "We
need about 30 to 35 votes, and I think we can piece together a working
majority to get that legislation through," Mr. Toews said yesterday.
"There has certainly been a consistent number of Liberals voting in
favour of that legislation." Mr. Toews told CTV's Question Period that
western NDP Members of Parliament and even some in the Bloc Quebecois
caucus oppose the registry. Despite the minister's confidence, however,
a vote on the bill would likely be a squeaker. Recent opposition
comments suggest they are leaning against supporting the Tory
initiative, which goes against the wishes of various police
associations. It plays well in rural areas and among Conservative
supporters upset with registry mismanagement under the former Liberal
government, however, and some have said the decision to table the bill
this week is purely political. MPs will be able to return to their
constituencies for the summer with symbolic progress on their campaign
pledge, the argument goes. Mr. Toews said, "I think that people
understand [the registry] has been an incredible waste of money, it
hasn't helped police forces, and that some of our other legislation
dealing with mandatory minimum prison sentences for the criminal use of
firearms will be much more effective," he said.

But I don't suppose that's good enough for you, is it?

[Denner]

Okay, Jason, I will evaluate;. (but not in the way you have described>)

The ONLY way we are going to KNOW if there are "30+" (or 30- for that matter) is to actually HAVE the vote-what with MANY politicians being they types of folks they are (cough...Stronach...cough...choke...) that is, folks who quite often have a 'last minute mind change'.

But my above ANSWER is JUST another opinion-an ASSUMPTION...mine...(although one formed after years of watching folks who have 'hidden agendas' or 'personall gains' to protect...)

While I agree with you (to quote you; "What I do know is that it is better to wait for a vote that you know that you will win rather than expend time and energy on a vote that you know that you will lose.") for the TIME BEING, as I believe it MAY not be the best time right now to have that vote-they BETTER have it at SOME time! PERIOD! (Or we've WILL have been 'FED- a bill of goods'!)

One thing that does favor Harper's 'shell game' (and us C-68 'shovers')
is the fact that 'Windy Cukier' and Co. are taking this threat (of the rifle registry being voted on/axed) as being VERY SERIOUS!

That is to say that they are SOMEWHAT worried...!

[Mark Fournier]

The ONLY way we are going to KNOW if there are "30+" (or 30- for that matter) is to actually HAVE the vote-what with MANY politicians being they types of folks they are (cough...Stronach...cough...choke...) that is, folks who quite often have a 'last minute mind change'.

They can change their votes at the last minute as individuals or as a group. Remember the period right before the Liberals fell, when all the confidence votes were going on? I can't remember what issue they were voting on, but everyone expected the Liberals to vote one way, and they surprised everyone by voting the exact opposite way en masse. It was a political ploy, but it happened. I don't actually expect that to happen in this case, but as you say, we can't know until the votes are cast.

[Mark Fournier]

I don't see why we can't put this to a vote now, as a confidence motion, and if it fails trigger an election.

Where's the downside?

I was wondering the same thing. I don't believe the Liberals have the guts to bring down the government at this point in time.

[Akimoya]

The person making the positive statement "It's possible to axe it now in a vote in the HoC" has the burden of proof to provide evidence to back up their statement.

Who said that, and where? I can't find that anywhere in this thread to the point you posted your message.

Smells like herring in here.