The Impending Romney Loss and What It Means

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DA Champion:"Mercenaries are basically equivalent to US troops. Its American people fighting on the dime of the American taxpayer. You can change the labels all you want, but the underlying nature remains the same."

Huh, no. Mercs are from a wide variety of nationalities (my buddy worked for Blackwater and is as Canadian as Wayne Gretzky) and don't have anything like the operational capacity that US troops do (no armor, no air support, etc). They are primarily used as security for US and International agency Embassy personnel. They did have a larger role in combat ops early onand during 'the surge', but havn't been used that way since the surge ended.

[Red Green]

RedGreen:"I would take the under side of the 300 over/under bet. I think the general population vote will actually be closer than it was last time round with McCain and I think Obama will get fewer EC votes but still win. "

I have no reason to think that Obama's polling is inflated, if anything the prevalence of cell phones among younger voters make me suspect he is under polling his numbers. Add in that Romney is simply incapable of motivating the Socons to get out and vote, and I just don't see anything but Obama winning by a big EC margin.

If Romney could move ahead by a few points nationally I might fell differently, but he wod have to show electioneering competence he has so far failed to demonstrate.

I think there will be some states in play this year for Romney. I have no reason for that, it's just a hunch. I think Romney might capture states like Colorado and Wisconsin which will lead the EC count to be closer than it was last time round.

[DA_Champion]

DA Champion:"Mercenaries are basically equivalent to US troops. Its American people fighting on the dime of the American taxpayer. You can change the labels all you want, but the underlying nature remains the same."

Huh, no. Mercs are from a wide variety of nationalities (my buddy worked for Blackwater and is as Canadian as Wayne Gretzky) and don't have anything like the operational capacity that US troops do (no armor, no air support, etc). They are primarily used as security for US and International agency Embassy personnel. They did have a larger role in combat ops early onand during 'the surge', but havn't been used that way since the surge ended.

It's just labels. In terms of marketing purposes, the difference between mercenary, contractor, and professional soldier are huge, no doubt.

However, it is the same underlying structure in terms of support.

Your buddy is from Canada, which is a part of the American empire. Canadians can go work for Blackwater in the same way that Canadian forces can go fight in Afghanistan and Libya. That said, the money for Blackwater comes from Washington, the power base of Blackwater is in the US, the political operations of Blackwater are run out of Washington, and most of the manpower is American.

[Julian]

If Obama wins this election there won't be anything remotely resembling the USA in four more years.

If Americans are that abjectly STUPID, then they deserve what will happen.

All conservative Americans should move north, we'll ship our moonbats south.

[Red Green]

If Obama wins this election there won't be anything remotely resembling the USA in four more years.

If Americans are that abjectly STUPID, then they deserve what will happen.

All conservative Americans should move north, we'll ship our moonbats south.

That's more than a bit of an exaggeration. The fact is we do not have a limited-government candidate for president. Either one of them is bad, but I would argue that Obama is the least bad in the long run. The real issue for this election is congress. If we can get more leadership in congress for limited govt, then Obama's power to do anything will be severely checked. He lost the house but still has the Senate and the GOP leadership in congress is hardly small-govt types. Should we manage to rectify that, then Obama is not as much of a threat.

[wildernessvoice]

There are some distinctions I would make;

As to Obama's reelection chances, he is a 66% favorite, according to polling analyst Nate Silver at the Times. He's got a slim lead overall, but has leads in most if not all key Electoral College states (Ohio, Penn, Fla, etc).

One interesting exercise Silver did was to chart a path for a Romney victory - in every case he MUST win Ohio. So there is your bellwether state. If Romney wins Ohio he has a chance (albeit about 33%) if he can't, he doesn't.

Put me down as betting Obama is reelected, and with over 300 in the EC.

Ohio primaty:
Date Sample Romney 38.0
Santorum 37.1
Gingrich 14.6
Paul 9.2

What is the chance of Romney getting Ron Paul's 9.2% after all the dirty tricks by the RNC?
What percent of Santorum's 37.1% Catholic/Evangelical voters will vote for Romney?
Recall the great Kerry surprise? Ohio surprise- went Bush!
Recall Bush's mid-term on his second term?
Evangelicals stayed home. Bush lost the Congress I think.
Romney couldn't get the rural vote. If the HONEST numbers were posted you would see that Ron Paul did much better than the crooked RNC admitted to.
When the race is so close- think Bush/Kerry every vote counts and every vote is counted lol.
What Romney and his RNC gangsters pulled on Ron Paul supporters is going to come back and bite his asss in the swing states.

[Hodgson]

If Obama wins this election there won't be anything remotely resembling the USA in four more years.

If Americans are that abjectly STUPID, then they deserve what will happen.

All conservative Americans should move north, we'll ship our moonbats south.

People use this sort of hyperbole all the time, but I think this time it may be legitimate. The United States has a massive problem and the problem is simple math.

They don't have any money.

They are literally bankrupting themselves beyond all logic.

4 more years of this and it could be almost impossible to undo without some kind of massive horrible solution.

Debt to GDP is beyond 100% for the Federal government. That's scary territory.

[Scanner]

RedGreen:"Your buddy is from Canada, which is a part of the American empire. Canadians can go work for Blackwater in the same way that Canadian forces can go fight in Afghanistan and Libya."

I agree that the place calling the shots is Washington, but;

A. Canada is NOT part of the 'American Empire' (though we (like Israel and the UK) are friendly with it.

B. Mercs are simply not the same thing as regular service troops. They have different loyalties (paycheck vs country), different operational abilities (security is really what they are good at), and they don't get any if the benefits that regular troops would. In Canada we don't recognize Canadian contractors as being 'vets' or count them among our war dead.

C. If the US were going to continue combat operating inIraq they wouldn't be able to relying solely on 'contractors'. What they can do is claim that they have removed US troops, while still maintaining a security presence for their political/diplomatic staff by using mercies for security.

[wildernessvoice]

You can tell by the topic wording this is a Ron Paul thread without the words "Ron Paul". You people have to grow up and move on. You are a detriment to the party now and thus Kenyan Hussein Obama supporters, which makes a mockery of your Paul BS whining when you would choose Obama over any Republican but Paul - not than many if any of you can actually vote in the USA anyway.

No. It is about the response to Romney from the Ron Paul supporters on election day. The bile has never been higher. Rand Paul's endorsement of Romney didn't sit well with these supporters. Read what Ron Paul supporters are saying about Rand Paul embracing the establishment- the people that locked them out, broke bones, adjurned meetings, counted votes in secret and disqualified the votes of whole counties.
If, IF, Romney loses it will be the treatment of Ron Paul supporters, NOT RON PAUL, Ron Paul supporters that will cost him swing states.

Ron Paul supporters filled stadiums when Romney couldn't fill the local school gym. The pics are all over the internet.
The fat lady has sang her song for Ron Paul BUT the Ron Paul supporters get the last kick at the cat in November.
These same people that took Congress away from Bush will deny Romney- they don't care!

[Scanner]

RedGreen;" Canadians can go work for Blackwater in the same way that Canadian forces can go fight in Afghanistan and Libya"

Canadians can go to work for Blackwater the same way we can go to work for IBM or an Indonesian conglomerate. Canadian soldiers were part of the mission in Afghanistan, but none took part in Iraq - they aren't free agents, they go where they are told to by the Canadian gov't.

Sorry, I'll stop now, wasn't my intention to hijack the thread with talk about mercs

[Maikeru]

Your buddy is from Canada, which is a part of the American empire.

Surely you meant Ca liforni a...
America has been part of the Canadian Empire since 1812...

[DA_Champion]

Your buddy is from Canada, which is a part of the American empire.

Surely you meant Ca liforni a...
America has been part of the Canadian Empire since 1812...

Canada is basically a US vassal state.

I'm not saying that's good or bad, only that it is.

Let's not deny reality.

[Maikeru]

Your buddy is from Canada, which is a part of the American empire.

Surely you meant Ca liforni a...
America has been part of the Canadian Empire since 1812...

Canada is basically a US vassal state.
I'm not saying that's good or bad, only that it is.
Let's not deny reality.

If the subject is reality and 'vassal states', Canada's internal and foreign affairs are dominated by the Nation of Quebec.
Your perspective on the relationship between Canada and America is skewed by immersion in American society.
Canada is no more dominated by America. politically or otherwise, than New Zealand is by Australia.

Earlier on, I drew a parallel between Obamania and Trudeaumania, and I hold to the belief that the 'morning after' reaction to Obama in America will be similar to the kickback against Trudeau's 'Just & Progressive' dogma in Canada.

Trudeau skated on losing control of Canada's government only due to the fractured nature of Canadian politics, coupled to the British Parliamentary system.
Obama has no such backstop.

[Scanner]

RedGreen:"Canada is basically a US vassal state.

I'm not saying that's good or bad, only that it is."

I'm saying you are simply wrong. If you were right Canuck troops would have been committed to Iraq, but the Canadian gov't of the day had no interest in Iraq (correctly), and made no effort to support the US invasion.

There is a big difference between 'ally' and 'client state'.

[Dogpatch]

STRATEGIES
AUGUST 7, 2012, 6:08 P.M. ET

Romney vs. Obama: The Oddsmakers Weigh In

Arends: It's illegal to wager on elections in the U.S. -- but in Great Britain, anything goes. Here's what U.K. bookies are saying about the presidential race.

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In Britain you can gamble on any election, including theirs -- and ours. I once wrote a book about it. Now I'm looking at the odds and wishing I were back in Blighty (i.e., England) with a fistful of bills.

Any high street bookie will take your bet. Ladbrokes, the biggest, offers a wide range of markets.

Do you think you know who'll win? The U.K. bookies now heavily favor Obama: He's quoted at 2/5, compared with 15/8 for Romney. Put another way, they currently give Obama a roughly 70% chance of winning, against 35% for Romney. (Those odds have moved sharply towards Obama in recent weeks, following Romney's missteps, although the polls in the U.S. don't reflect that.)

Looking for a punt on Romney's VP pick? The bookies heavily favor Rob Portman (2/1) and Tim Pawlenty (9/4).

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More - http://www.smartmoney.com/invest/strate ... 372024237/

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I would like to see Romney win but it seems the Gods have spoken