Alberta Election predictions?

[Hodgson]

So, we've only got 4 days left until the election starts.
The polls have spoken at this point, but there are still 1 in 5 undecided.
Any thoughts or predictions?
Make your claim and we'll see how smart we all are after Monday.

Wildrose - 45
PC - 40
NDP - 3

[RedDog]

I've noticed just in a couple days that Redford is getting more sympathetic eastern based media grovelling than earlier through the campaign. Very fascinating chatter on the Rob Breakenridge radio show last night.

We're going to see a lot of Lippers and Dippers voting PC to block WR, as per Morton PC leadership bids - votes based on who you don't want rather than who you do.

[Blaze Pascal]

I predict that if Danielle keeps going like this the Left will soon begin a campaign to attack her personally in an effort to destroy her career. It will be a Palin type hit campaign. I predict that international Leftists will start to notice her and join in this attack. They can't just sit by and let her dismantle their entire program. I hope and pray that she will steel her nerves because the Left cannot like what they are seeing right now.

[Faramir]

I sort of see it that way too. A battle in the centre. Redford may get undecided who once voted NDP/Liberal who want to stop private healthcare, ect from the WRA. But I think Smith's principled stand on free speech for her members and not tossing candidates under the bus will solicit more conservative PC voters. The question is how small C conservative IS Alberta compared to say BC, or Ontario?

My guess is only a handful of voters will jump to the PC party. I put Redford at 30 + 4 of the undecided who were leaning her way anyways + 2 old Liberal/NDP voters - 4 PC voters switching to WRA = 32. For Smith 30 + 3 leaning + 4 from the PC = 37.

WRA 37
PC 32
NDP 10
Libs 11
AP 2
Other 1
Don't vote 7

Of voters:

WRA 39.8
PC 34.4
NDP 10.7
Libs 11.8
AP 2.1
Other 1.2

[Hodgson]

That sounds about right.

A long time ago I called a minority, but now that it is starting to look that way, I really ope it doesn't happen. It's so much wasted time and most likely another election next year.

I think the cat is out of the bag in regards to Redford's liberalism. The PC's are now going FULL LIBERAL with websites like neverthoughtidvotepc.com and rhetoric that is pure 2004 Paul Martin. They aren't even hiding it now.

This gives me hope that rural voters will stop with their delusions of the PC's being conservative in any way, shape of form and they'll move as a group to the Roses. The Ralph Klein jabs should help with this.

Calgary will probably be tighter than people realize, but there are a lot of sophisticated conservatives that are quiet and non-political that turn up and vote with their mouths shut. They'll vote Wildrose without telling anyone...including polling companies.

I suspect in order for the Roses to get my 45 prediction it will require 25 seats, minimum from the rural voters.
Rural - 28
Calgary - 15
Edmonton - 2

[NeoLuddite]

Nurse Redford desperately wants to move into your living room to accomplish her "Alberta by Design" agenda.
Once there she'll claim squatter's rights and be virtually impossible to evict for the next four years.
Beware! - Lock your doors April 23 by voting WRA or for anybody but the corrupt PCs.

I'd rather keep the change and manage it myself within my own community.

[RedDog]

Nurse Ratched, I mean Redford. I like it.

[Angleland]

From what I have heard, the Alberta PC's have been an increasingly hollowed out husk for some time now. They will likely win a respectable amount of seats this time even as they are tossed from power. After that they could follow a downward spiral like the Saskatchewan PC's. Maybe at some point in the distant future they might enjoy a resurrection such as the BC Conservatives are having now.

[Hodgson]

It's funny you mention that.

I just realized that this is actually the 'second' time in my life that I've actively been working to destroy a Progressive Conservative Party.

The last time was in Regina in 91. I co-founded a group with my teenage friends called Kids Against Decentralization.
We helped destroy the PC's and ruined Regina-Wascana incumbent Gordon Martin's political career.

[NeoLuddite]

Alberta is not the cuckoo's nest Redford thinks it is...

[NeoLuddite]

Redford and her PC sycophants remind me of the now extinct foo-foo bird - Flying in ever decreasing circles until it disappears into its own a$$hole.

[Brown envelope]

Nurse Redford must have hired Warnout for her campaign. The same tired old fear-mongering tactics seem right out of his one-page playbook. I have never seen the lame-street media so interested in an Alberta election before this one.

[styky]

Dan Arnold: Alberta minority could see opposition (and some Tories) gang up on Redford
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/201 ... n-redford/

[Hodgson]

Rumour has it that Redford is done for no matter what happens.
(Unless she wins a super majority, but that ain't gonna happen.)

[RedDog]

Rumour has it that Redford is done for no matter what happens.
(Unless she wins a super majority, but that ain't gonna happen.)

Stelmach took a larger majority than Klein ever did and he was still viewed as a goober not many could relate to. I agree that Redford is done. How many times have I referred to her short shelf life? Again, her own seat in Calgary-Elbow is no guarantee.