hiti wrote:POLLARA pollsters always asks voters not just for their party preference, but also their second choice preference. By doing so, we know that 57% of Alliance supporters would vote PC if there were no Alliance candidate in their riding. Some 25% would vote Liberal, and 14% would go to the NDP.
If we examined a riding that was a microcosm of all of Canada in the last election, returning votes in proportions of 40.8% for the Liberals, 25.5% for the Alliance, 12.2% for the PCs, 8.5% for the NDP and 10.7% for the Bloc, the absence of an Alliance candidate would indeed provide some PC gains. The results could be projected to: Liberals 47%, PCs 27%, NDP 12%, and Bloc 11%. This is a net gain for the PCs, but the Liberal plurality has now grown to 20%, up from 15%.
So in the average riding in which the Alliance candidate had been "pulled" the PCs would increase their support, but the Liberals would be positioned to win by an even greater margin than before.
The other side of the coin is even better. Tory supporters, without a PC candidate in their riding, would break 24% to the Alliance, 19% to the NDP, 3% to the Bloc, and 53% to the Liberals. In our microcosm riding therefore, the new numbers could be projected to: Liberals 47%, Alliance 28%, NDP 11% and Bloc 11%.
By pulling the PC candidate, the Alliance would take a small gain from the last federal election, while the Liberals would make a much larger one. Clearly both of these scenarios benefit one party only, the Liberal Party.
I think that the conclusion being gleaned from these results is misleading. I believe the PC Party is the second best party to vote for. That doesn't mean that if, for some reason other than electoral co-operation, the Alliance didn't field a candidate in my riding, I would vote PC. The more seats the PCs win, the more they misguidedly believe they can win on their own. The more they believe that, the less likely it is that we'll see any conservative co-operation.
However, if we're running a single slate of candidates, the PC candidate is no longer a member of a rival party, but an ally. The election of a PC MP in my riding means a greater role for my party and for conservatism in Canada.
Electoral co-operation would thaw some of the animosity that exists when the parties are opposing each other. I believe that in this scenario, the second choice numbers would be much higher in both parties. In addition, many conservative-minded voters who are frustrated by the split and don't vote, would see their vote as meaningful.
Just MHO.