by Peter O'Donnell » 01/ 01/ 12 4:10 am
I don't believe that the NATO powers want war in any part of the region, the actions taken in Libya, whether you agree with them or not, were never in any danger of spilling beyond the borders of Libya and have proven to be effective in their own stated purposes, there again, you might not agree with said purposes.
War with Iran would only come about indirectly, in my estimation. That would be as a consequence of meddling in Iraq or Syria after the fall of the current government there. The exercises in the Straits of Hormuz are just to deflect attention within Iran to numerous covert operations (presumably by Israel) against the Iranian nuclear program, as well as the effects of sanctions. There is no real advantage to Iran in closing their export pipeline to friendly nations.
There is no organized "plot" to go to war against Iran. There is, however, a high-alert situation in Israel with regard to Iran, Syria and Egypt, any or all of which could become unstable or (in the case of Iran) interested in exploiting a power vacuum. People need to realize that Israel is surrounded by declared opponents dedicated to the extinction of the Jewish state. You can label this Zionism to make it sound bad, but Israel is the defined homeland of the Jewish people, not defined by you or me, but by God. So that becomes the foundation for our belatedly wise policies in the region. We have to choose sides in a conflict that is inevitable and which tests the very nature of our freedom.
People also need to realize that Iran is governed by a guy who ardently believes in a Shi'ite version of the Islamic end time prophecy, and a more militant one than even his clerical overlords hold to be true. Without going into details, he believes that the Islamic messianic figure is about to appear, and the theology says that this personage will lead an assault on Jerusalem and restore the Caliphate to the world (which must be taken to mean at least Eurabia). This is not something Dick Cheney made up in his basement. All that restrains the Iranian government is the reality of their weak military position, but they have resources that can be used in the region, notably Hezbollah which governs Lebanon. They also have interests in Iraq and could become players in the end game in Syria.
The NATO alliance are basically all the friends Israel have in this world, aside from one or two friendly regimes. Without support from NATO, a concerted Islamic attack on Israel could succeed despite generally inferior man-for-man abilities and resources. You have to multiply that factor by the very large factor of superior manpower and remember that Israel is a tiny country that has only minutes to react to air strikes, and seconds to react to missile launches. Hezbollah is said to have 15,000 missiles and Iran boasts that they have 150,000 aimed at Israel.
Still think Harper's the bad guy? I don't.