I know people made money in the 1990s by doing the sports betting lotteries. You don't need luck, you just need better hockey brains than the government employees. Apparently back in the 1990s they didn't take home ice advantage into account. They're probably including it by now. Make a better hockey model and play games like mis-o-jeu, that is the way to go imo. That would actually be a fun community activity as I'm sure most of us have an opinion.
Peter O'Donnell wrote:I will add a much easier example that is very easy to visualize.
You are told you can win a million bucks by crossing an interstate highway at night, blindfolded, following a rope.
Traffic is very light and your chance of crossing safely is 99.99% ... so how many times would you feel safe doing it? And how many times would you suggest that all the people in your college physics class might do it at ten-metre intervals, all at the same time?
I wouldn't even do it once :-)
As for your hypothetical example, it's fit by a geometric distribution
You expect your first death at the 10,000th trial, since the mean is 1/p.
Again, with the birthdays, your odds improve because there are more and more correct answers. No matter how many people you have playing the 6/49 there is only one correct answer per week, for the 6/6.
To individuals, the value of money is not "linear". If you lose $1 a week it can "feel" like $0, whereas winning the jackpot might "feel" more like infinity. Same reason people buy insurance and extended warranties even though they know they'll probably lose.