New ideas about fundraising (for the future)

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New ideas about fundraising (for the future)

Postby Peter O'Donnell » 06/ 04/ 09 12:51 pm

New ideas about fundraising (for the future)
___________________________________

After the successful campaign to raise $3,500 at FD, I imagine that we will have at least one more round of fund-raising to come. On top of that, now that I am a named defendant and not a John Doe, I will be needing to consider personal defence options. I think that these need to be in co-ordination with other defendants and the overall strategy, because my first reaction would be to say (as in my defence concept thread) that I see this as a political struggle that belongs outside a courtroom, and that I have the belief that the world is about to descend into chaos in any case so this trial may be the least of anyone's concerns.

But I always try to operate on the belief that we should continue to respect the legal framework of society, even if it has recently added on some very questionable laws like Section 13, and, that we should act as though these are normal times and not the last five days of the age.

Consequently, I place before you all of these fund-raising suggestions for your consideration. These would apply both to the general FD situation, and to my personal requirements, which would be to find $500 to $1,500 some time very soon, ahead of the schedule by which I can reasonably expect to find it lying around my own home through our (family) efforts.

I should just add that I am not employed in anything very substantial, having left the courier business mainly for health reasons at the end of 2007 with only a modest stash put together, due to the large expenses that almost swamped my income for the year, and the fact that in previous years I was filling in two or three days a week for another courier who has since left the business also, having gone blind (sad story).

Add to this an ongoing history of only part-time employment over most of the past thirty years once I dropped out of the mainstream due to my extensive black-listing by Environment Canada (this goes back to 1979-80), and you get the picture, we have gotten by alright because my wife has (more or less) full-time employment although not at any affluent level, and to secure this we had to move into expensive greater Vancouver rather than our first choice, anywhere else in BC where costs of living might be cheaper as well as salaries lower.

I don't want to impose on anybody, I got myself into this in many stages. My opposition to RW and company is really the 2.0 version of my much longer struggle with the meteo-establishment who have done everything inhumanly possible to make my chosen career a living hell situation.

What happened there, in a nutshell, is that I had to gradually downgrade my research time from 1980 to 1983 due to this blacklisting cutting off employment or research grant opportunities, until by the mid-1980s, I had a stable situation together with my wife, working (both of us) in computer typesetting. This always managed to provide for us and yet it was a dead-end situation, unknown to us, because Bill Gates had this alternative idea going, that everyone should be able to computer typeset from their own homes and offices. This reduced the market for services very rapidly from 1990 to 1993, and made it necessary to find a new living plan.

We did that in stages out here in BC after leaving Ontario due to fears that we would bottom out in a Mike Harris shame camp before finding an exit strategy. Our strategy was moderately successful on the level of regaining a day-to-day solvency and existence, but life has never been affluent for us, and we have no assets or resources that can be converted into money for legal fees (or judgements, so what's the point of naming me as a defendant, other than to waste my time reading all these documents?)

One response I had to the evolving situation was to cash out my rather meager CPP early. As you may know, if you opt to cash out at age 60, you get 60% of the scheduled monthly payments at that point. If you wait to 62.5, you get 80% and if you delay past 65 you can book yourself in for larger payments later on the same principle.

Now you can imagine that my monthly CPP is not all that much. I won't get into exact numbers here, but going early will amount to walking around money in my pocket. It seems like a good idea, though, because all of the other projected cash flow concepts past our mutual age 65 would suggest a level of comfort equal to camping out in a shack somewhere in nowhere-land, which is about our speed anyway (big city life does not suit us except that we have to take it for now).

Therefore, that hundred dollar a month differential probably won't seem like too much when all the other, larger bits and pieces hit the ground in five years. So, I was thinking that I would have easily two or three hundred a month to flash around at the legal community soon. As you may know, I just turned 60. I am waiting to find out when I start to see these monthly amounts. From the forms and procedures (which I completed about a month ago) it seems that I may see my first cheque in about a month. Anyone know more, tell me. Otherwise, I am hitting the ground with only a limited stash o'cash as of today, and I have two big hurdles right in front of me that are much closer than I had expected when I committed to this early pension idea.

You might think, well go out and work for a week or a month, but in point of fact, there is no job market for my skill set. My health is okay if I don't do much, but in late 2007 I was getting concerned that a breakdown or accident was awaiting me if I kept up the rather hectic pace of the courier business. There is no such animal as a part-time courier, you either do it full out, or you don't do it at all. I am also an experienced and qualified church musician, and have had some fill-in stints here and there for holiday times, but no full-time opportunities have been visible for a while. At my age, I am not likely to be top of the list anywhere for that sort of thing. And I am more into Bach and Mozart than twang and whatever.

Here are some of my fundraising ideas then ...

** send cash, send lots of cash (ha ha)

** someone who can afford to do so, between 60 and 65, could think of going my route, early CPP, and pledge it to FD or a specific law firm, and then take the slight hit at age 65 which I am sure grateful FD members might think of restoring to the expected levels -- meanwhile, you weren't thinking of having the cash flow early, so you won't be out of pocket. It does count as income though.

** we could look at a joint sports lottery approach. In any group of four or five games, there is always $200 or more to be made if you can guess the right results (for a $2 or not much larger stake) ... so I would foresee possible schemes where dozens of FD members took on various combinations of results and whoever won would donate, everyone else would be $2 poorer.

** I have the makings of an e-book on climate realism, but I am looking into the details of cost and structure. If anyone out there knows how to create an e-book and wants to be my partner in this for half the incoming cash flow, then I will fill out the template you provide me, and within a week we will have an e-book that might sell at $8 or $12 a pop to quite a potentially large market, for starters, I am already a known personality on three large weather forums, and could imagine 200 or more sales from those who have tended to agree with my posts on this subject. It could spread out from there to be lucrative. This is a new concept as of last night in my case, so I have had no time to develop it. The book itself is easily assembled from material I have already produced.

** I play poker fairly well but I am confined to freerolls on the internet. If somebody wants to stake me, I could go into a larger tournament and see if we could raise some larger amounts faster.

** golf tournament -- I haven't been playing for a year now due to this decision I made to concentrate on research. I was hoping to have a slight cash flow in 2008 to get me out to golf once a month but it didn't work out that way due to health bills. But 20-30 of us in the west could meet for a golf tournament some time this summer. Same for the Ontario contingent at your end.

** appeals to the wider conservative community through the press, such as National Post, as well as renewed efforts on allied websites.

I have to go out now, but I may have more ideas later. Please, post your ideas as well. The sooner we can effectively meet the Warman challenge, the better it will be for all Canadian free thinkers, whatever your politics may be.

Roger over and out. :angel:
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Postby styky » 06/ 04/ 09 1:44 pm

** I have the makings of an e-book on climate realism, but I am looking into the details of cost and structure. If anyone out there knows how to create an e-book and wants to be my partner in this for half the incoming cash flow, then I will fill out the template you provide me, and within a week we will have an e-book that might sell at $8 or $12 a pop to quite a potentially large market, for starters, I am already a known personality on three large weather forums, and could imagine 200 or more sales from those who have tended to agree with my posts on this subject. It could spread out from there to be lucrative. This is a new concept as of last night in my case, so I have had no time to develop it. The book itself is easily assembled from material I have already produced.


I'd put out money for a copy of such a book ;)
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Postby styky » 06/ 04/ 09 4:45 pm

bunp
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Postby Theresa » 06/ 04/ 09 5:58 pm

We have to do something to help you all out. I am game for ideas presented or otherwise may be.

It may be a good idea to have a neutral party collect all the funds so there is no second guessing and the funds could be divied up amonsgt the defenders.

ALL of us must help you guys. Even $5.00 donations add up.

Has anyone thought about contacting the lawyer who successfully fought Bill Whatcott's case?
http://tiny.cc/Gz84b
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Postby Connie Fournier » 06/ 04/ 09 6:58 pm

Warman is going to wish he never found out who the John Does were. Mark my words. :D
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Postby Peter O'Donnell » 06/ 04/ 09 7:10 pm

He was once, twice, three times a plaintiff ...
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Postby RedDog » 06/ 04/ 09 7:25 pm

You know, as other plans are explored, and don't laugh now, but what if 30 or 50 of us simply committed to $2./wk via PayPal to be popped on 649 tickets?

I mean, I'm not suggesting a multi-million dollar bonanza but you buy enough tickets and you win a thousand or more here and there when my cost would be $8./month knowing much of those funds would be going back into the community.

Everyone focuses on the big jackpots but I know a woman in Edmonton who won $250,000. and 10,000 IN THE SAME YEAR.
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Postby DA_Champion » 06/ 04/ 09 7:28 pm

RedDog wrote:You know, as other plans are explored, and don't laugh now, but what if 30 or 50 of us simply committed to $2./wk via PayPal to be popped on 649 tickets?

I mean, I'm not suggesting a multi-million dollar bonanza but you buy enough tickets and you win a thousand or more here and there when my cost would be $8./month knowing much of those funds would be going back into the community.

Everyone focuses on the big jackpots but I know a woman in Edmonton who won $250,000. and 10,000 IN THE SAME YEAR.


It's better to just give $2/week...
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Postby DA_Champion » 06/ 04/ 09 7:33 pm

When I first joined FD there were various kinds of memberships, one of them was the gold membership for $25/month, which I didn't join at the time being 17 and all.

Annual memberships might be a good idea, optional of course to some extent. I think at the time the deal was you get your own forum on FD, I'm not sure about that.

Ultimately, it seems the current route is best, as it works. Some fraction gives money every fundraiser or two. The only way for this to work is to have a lot of members, to grow FD. If there are twice as many active members, there will be twice as many active posters. If we all tell miscellaneous people about FD and make good contributions to interest lurkers it will go a long way.
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Postby RedDog » 06/ 04/ 09 7:39 pm

My Calgary Jeep Association membership costs $50./yr and our Red Neck Deer club, of which I'm the Secretary, costs $25./yr - a figure I've argued is too low.

Aside from being "allowed" on some member only functions, the primary benefit is access to the "members only" topics on the posting forums.
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Postby Theresa » 06/ 04/ 09 8:51 pm

What about a 50 -50 pot?
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Postby RedDog » 06/ 04/ 09 9:08 pm

Theresa wrote:What about a 50 -50 pot?


I don't think that's a bad idea Theresa. That could be an on-going thing where the input is not great if one is set up for quick transfer with no fuss. That's what I was getting at with the 649 idea. If you broke this down to a pocket change deal, perhaps more people would get on board.

I have no idea but I'm guessing the same people are contributing to the legal cause while the $2. to $10. window of casual ability by good, able people is not being tapped. I really think tapping that side of participants here - students, single wage earners with bills, etc., could pad the base a bit.
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Postby Peter O'Donnell » 06/ 04/ 09 9:24 pm

Red Dog is on to something with the principle of exponential chance of multiple exposure.

Here's how it works in a very common everyday example.

Ask yourself this ... at a social function, how many people must enter a room before you have a 50% chance that two of them will share a birthday?

You might guess 366/2 or 183.

But you'd be surprised ... the answer is actually 24.

Only 24 people have to be considered as a group before you reach that 50-50 chance that somewhere in the group, two will share a birthday.

The reason is that probability of not finding this to be the case (and allowing for the slight distortion of leap year day and the different birth rates of the months of the year) is calculated as follows:

1 x (365/366) x (364/365) x ... x (342/343) and this computes to about .50

By the time you have fifty people in that room, the chances are about three in four of having at least one similar birthday and fairly high of having two cases.

So this applies to any strategy of searching for long odds -- the more times you can independently repeat the test, the more likely you are to hit on a result.

I would imagine that a consortium could guarantee themselves quite a good result by assigning all members of their group different 6-49 numbers all separated by the same amounts, for example, I play 6,13,19,25,31,37 and you play 7,14,20,26,32,38 etc. As the group expands in size, the chances of not missing the higher jackpots (not all six numbers necessarily) drops into the range where somebody is going to hit within weeks.

The same principle applies to lawsuits. If somebody has a 90% chance of winning lawsuits, and they are forced to attempt more and more of them, then eventually they will lose one. Each person who draws fire increases the odds that it will happen sooner rather than later.
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Postby DA_Champion » 06/ 04/ 09 9:41 pm

Peter O'Donnell wrote:Red Dog is on to something with the principle of exponential chance of multiple exposure.

Here's how it works in a very common everyday example.

Ask yourself this ... at a social function, how many people must enter a room before you have a 50% chance that two of them will share a birthday?

You might guess 366/2 or 183.

But you'd be surprised ... the answer is actually 24.

Only 24 people have to be considered as a group before you reach that 50-50 chance that somewhere in the group, two will share a birthday.

The reason is that probability of not finding this to be the case (and allowing for the slight distortion of leap year day and the different birth rates of the months of the year) is calculated as follows:

1 x (365/366) x (364/365) x ... x (342/343) and this computes to about .50

By the time you have fifty people in that room, the chances are about three in four of having at least one similar birthday and fairly high of having two cases.

So this applies to any strategy of searching for long odds -- the more times you can independently repeat the test, the more likely you are to hit on a result.

I would imagine that a consortium could guarantee themselves quite a good result by assigning all members of their group different 6-49 numbers all separated by the same amounts, for example, I play 6,13,19,25,31,37 and you play 7,14,20,26,32,38 etc. As the group expands in size, the chances of not missing the higher jackpots (not all six numbers necessarily) drops into the range where somebody is going to hit within weeks.

The same principle applies to lawsuits. If somebody has a 90% chance of winning lawsuits, and they are forced to attempt more and more of them, then eventually they will lose one. Each person who draws fire increases the odds that it will happen sooner rather than later.


No.

The birthdays are a very different example as there are only 365 days in a year. Say we have 50 people in a pool, the numbers are vast enough we're in the regime of independent trials.

We get 2500 trials a year, or a 1/5600 chance of winning.

Jackpot (all six winning numbers selected)
There are a total of 13,983,816 different groups of six numbers which could be drawn from the set {1, 2, ... , 49}. To see this we observe that there are 49 possibilities for the first number drawn, following which there are 48 possibilities for the second number, 47 for the third, 46 for the fourth, 45 for the fifth, and 44 for the sixth. If we multiply the numbers 49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44 we get 10,068,347,520. However, each possible group of six numbers (combination) can be drawn in different ways depending on which number in the group was drawn first, which was drawn second, and so on. There are 6 choices for the first, 5 for the second, 4 for the third, 3 for the fourth, 2 for the fifth, and 1 for the sixth. Multiply these numbers out to arrive at 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 720. We then need to divide 10,068,347,520 by 720 to arrive at the figure 13,983,816 as the number of different groups of six numbers (different picks). Since all numbers are assumed to be equally likely and since the probability of some number being drawn must be one, it follows that each pick of six numbers has a probability of 1/13,983,816 = 0.00000007151. This is roughly the same probability as obtaining 24 heads in succession when flipping a fair coin!

Second Prize (five winning numbers + bonus)
The pick of six must include 5 winning numbers plus the bonus. Since 5 of the six winning numbers must be picked, this means that one of the winning numbers must be excluded. There are six possibilities for the choice of excluded number and hence there are six ways for a pick of six to win the second place prize. The probability is thus 6/13,983,816 = 0.0000004291 which translates into odds against of 2,330,635:1.

Third Prize (five winning numbers selected, bonus number not selected)
As in the second prize there are six ways for a pick of six to include exactly five of the six drawn numbers. The remaining number must be one of the 42 numbers left over after the six winning numbers and the bonus number have been excluded. Thus there are a total of 6 x 42 = 252 ways for a pick of six to win the third prize. This becomes a probability of 252/13,983,816 = 0.00001802 or, equivalently, odds against of 55490.3:1.

Fourth Prize (four winning numbers selected)
There are 15 ways to include four of the six winning numbers and 903 ways to include two of the 43 non-winning numbers for a total of 15 x 903 = 13,545 ways for a pick of six to win the fourth prize, which works out to a probability of 13,545/13,983,816 = 0.0009686, that is odds against of 1031.4:1.

Fifth Prize (three winning numbers selected)
There are 20 ways to include three of the six winning numbers and 12,341 ways to include three of the 43 non-winning numbers for a total of 20 x 12,341 = 246,820 ways for a pick of six to win the fifth prize, which works out to a probability of 246,820/13,983,816 = 0.01765, that is odds against of 55.7:1.


http://www.math.mcmaster.ca/fred/Lotto/
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Postby DA_Champion » 06/ 04/ 09 9:49 pm

To add:

It actually works the other way if you're not careful(which you would be).

Buying 14 million 6/49 tickets does not guarantee you a victory because many people will have the same identical wrong number. In the birthdays example, for every birthday you add, you get one more correct answer. With 2 people in the room only February 2nd and March 31st are correct answers. With 3 people in the room, suddenly September 9th becomes a correct answer as well.

With 6/49 tickets, every time you add a combination, you get one more combination which is 99.99999285% certain to be wrong. That said, if course any group would make sure everyone has a different number.

I would imagine that a consortium could guarantee themselves quite a good result by assigning all members of their group different 6-49 numbers all separated by the same amounts, for example, I play 6,13,19,25,31,37 and you play 7,14,20,26,32,38 etc. As the group expands in size, the chances of not missing the higher jackpots (not all six numbers necessarily) drops into the range where somebody is going to hit within weeks.


Helps if going for 5/6, not if going for 6/6.
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