Saturday, April 2, 2011
Liberal and Conservative ceilings after Week 1
After the first week of campaigning, it seems that the Conservatives are capable of topping out at more than the 155 seats needed to get a majority government. But the wiggle room the party has is miniscule.
Every weekend, I am going to calculate what the Liberal and Conservative ceilings were during the preceding week. The ceilings are established similarly to how I calculate the best and worst case scenarios: I take the best regional results for each party from all of the polls released during the week, and run seat projections with those results. The only difference is that I am taking the highest poll result, rather than the result that delivers the most seats. This puts the onus on the parties themselves, rather than on the strength or weakness of other parties. It is also more manageable from my end.
Of course, these calculations are greatly influenced by the smaller samples of regional polls. But we can still draw some useful information from these ceilings, as it is unlikely that the parties are capable of outpacing the best polls when you consider that the best polls are likely a few points higher than reality thanks to the MOE.
We'll start with the Conservatives. Their best poll results were 43% in British Columbia, 61% in Alberta, 52% in the Prairies, 47.5% in Ontario, 26.7% in Quebec, and 36.2% in Atlantic Canada. Together, that would give the party roughly 43% support in Canada.
It would also hand them 160 seats, five more than are needed for a majority. Their ceilings for the first week are 24 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 22 in the Prairies, 63 in Ontario, 12 in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada, based only on the best poll results. As the Conservatives are currently riding higher in the campaign projection in Atlantic Canada, this is an indication of how the polls have not been great for the Tories out east in this last week. Their numbers have been good, but the Liberals have been doing better. With their support for the Lower Churchill projection, however, I expect the Tories to gain.
For the Liberals, the week has given them some reason to dare to hope that things may turn in their favour, but they still have been struggling and trailing the Conservatives by a significant margin. Their best poll results were 32.3% in British Columbia, 21% in Alberta, 33% in the Prairies, 34.5% in Ontario, 26.5% in Quebec, and 47.9% in Atlantic Canada. Nationally, that would give them 32% support.
Their best seat results are seven in British Columbia, one in Alberta, six in the Prairies, 30 in Ontario, 18 in Quebec, and 23 in Atlantic Canada. This would give them 86 seats in all, a gain of nine over their standings when the government fell and the election was called.
It's a modest gain, but the Conservatives would also make a modest gain of their own. That the best the Liberals can do in Ontario is 30 seats shows the real problem of the first week for Michael Ignatieff: the Conservatives are doing extraordinarily well in Ontario. The Liberals need to whittle that lead down if they want to have any hope of winning more than 90 seats. If they want to form the next government, it is absolutely essential that the tide turns in Ontario.
braveheart wrote:Well this could be a curve ball for Iggy . The recent incident involving a Boeing 737-300 where part of the fuselage blew a hole in it has cause the FAA to issue an air worthiness directive.
http://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guida ... rgency.pdf
Well guess what type of plane Iggy is using - it is a 737-400. Same type structure, same type of problem.
This means that some where they have to pull his campaign plane and inspect it.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests